The Rocket has not yet decided which team he will pitch for in 2007. He hasn’t even announced if he will pitch at all in 2007. If you read between the lines, however, it’s a safe bet to assume that Roger Clemens will be striking out hitters for a playoff contender in July.
When he does come back, Clemens will be pitching for one of these three teams: the Houston Astros, the Boston Red Sox, or the New York Yankees. What are the implications of his team selection?
If Clemens were to stay in Houston, he would be able to stay in the NL. This means that he doesn’t have to face the DH. This makes Houston the best destination for his ERA and WHIP numbers. Houston does have a hitter’s ballpark, but Clemens’ ERA numbers the last three seasons (2.98, 1.87, 2.30) show that he is unaffected by it. The facts that his son is in the Astros organization and that Texas is his home enhance Houston’s shot at retaining the Rocket.
In his tenure in Houston, the Rocket has probably missed out on at least 10 wins because of poor run support. The addition of Carlos Lee to the lineup should help turn that around a little, although the Astros still have the weakest lineup of the three destinations. Clemens was initially lured to Houston by pal Andy Pettitte. His departure may have an effect on the Rocket’s decision.
Some people believe that Clemens might return to Boston, where he won multiple Cy Young awards. They believe that it would be a poetic end to the future hall-of-famer’s career. Clemens would get much better run support in Boston. He would join a potentially killer rotation that includes Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Jonathan Papelbon. His best years were in Boston.
The problem is that Boston is unlikely to have the cash to pay Clemens. Signings in this off-season have greatly raised the price tag on starting pitchers. Clemens is sure to command at least a prorated number based on an annual salary of $20 million. After spending more than $100 million on Matsuzaka, Boston might not be able to outbid other teams, such as…
After unloading Randy Johnson, the Yankees have freed up space on their payroll for Clemens. Even with Johnson, the Yanks would have aggressively pursued the Rocket. If Clemens chooses New York, he will get the best run support by far. The Big Unit won 17 games last season with an ERA over 5. Clemens has a great shot at winning 20-23 games with a lineup that includes A-Rod, Derek Jeter, Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, Hideki Matsui, Robinson Cano, Jorge Posada, and Johnny Damon. Plus, New York is the only destination that offers a solid closer who won’t blow the save. A return to the Big Apple would also mean a reunion with Pettitte.
The negative with New York is that his worst seasons came with them. In five seasons between 1999-2003, Clemens had three seasons with an ERA of 3.91 or higher. Like Boston, he would have to face a DH in the lineup. However, Clemens has proven he can pitch in the New York spotlight, and his mental toughness is unquestionable.
